(BIVN) – The eruption at the summit of Kīlauea remains paused, and scientists have been unable to model the forecast window for the next lava fountaining episode due to ongoing, irregular ground deformation patterns.
Since the end of episode 54 on August 25, the rate of summit inflation has been highly unstable. “Another fountain episode may occur in the coming weeks if normal patterns of reinflation resume,” the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported on Tuesday. “Due to continuing irregular behavior, more data are needed to model the forecast window for the next episode.”
From the Observatory:
Summit reinflation has been very unsteady since lava fountaining episode 54 on August 25, and it began slowing again around 2:00 a.m. HST yesterday. The summit then deflated slightly between about 7 a.m. and 12 p.m. HST, but tilt has been mostly flat since then. As of this update, the Uēkahuna (UWD) tiltmeter has measured a total of 3.5 microradians of inflation relative to the end of lava fountaining episode 54; this value is very low for being almost a week removed from the episode. Deflationary tilt on UWD totaled 12.7 microradians during episode 54.
No significant activity has been noted along Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone or Southwest Rift Zone.
From the Tuesday “analysis” provided by the Observatory:
The abrupt switch from summit deflation to inflation at the end of lava fountaining episode 54 and continued seismic tremor bursts from the Halema’uma’u eruptive vents indicate that another lava fountaining episode may occur in the coming weeks. Reinflation has been slow and irregular, having been interrupted by multiple deflations of varying magnitude and duration. Coupled with minimal vent glow, these observations suggest that magma is relatively deep in the vent conduits at this time. HVO will provide a forecast for the next lava fountaining episode once the reinflation pattern stabilizes and there is enough tilt data to model the activity.
Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Lava fountaining episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses of two or more weeks.
