(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano is paused. Although summit reinflation has been very unsteady since lava fountaining episode 54 ended on August 25th, scientists over the last few days have seen enough data to project another episode could occur next week.
A forecast window of September 7 to September 13 is likely for episode 55, if inflation follows the prior patterns, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reports.
Deflation began yesterday morning, and has continued over the past day. It appears to have levelled off around mid-day. The current pattern is similar to what followed the last few episodes, the Observatory says.
From the USGS HVO analysis posted on Friday:
The abrupt switch from summit deflation to inflation at the end of lava fountaining episode 54 and continued seismic tremor bursts from the Halemaʻumaʻu eruptive vents indicate that another lava fountaining episode may occur in the coming weeks. Reinflation has been slow and irregular, having been interrupted by multiple deflations of varying magnitude and duration. After inflating over 4 microradians from September 1-3, deflation began yesterday morning, continuing the stepwise trend. Continuous glow from the north vent overnight suggest that magma has returned to higher levels in the vent conduit, despite the ongoing deflation. The recent summit inflation appears to be following a pattern similar to the last 4 pauses allowing modeling of a broad forecast window of Monday, September 7, to Sunay, September 13, for the potential onset of episode 55 fountains.
The USGS Volcano Alert Level for Kīlauea is currently at ADVISORY and the Aviation Color Code is YELLOW.
