(BIVN) – The State of Hawaiʻi is bracing for heavy rains and flash flooding as Hurricane Lowell makes its close approach to the immediate west of the Hawaiian islands.
As of Sunday at 8 a.m., Hurricane Lowell was 575 miles south-southwest of Lihue, moving slowly north-northwest at 5 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niʻihau.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts, making Lowell a category 3 major hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Lowell is expected to remain a major hurricane through Monday.
Lowell is expected turn toward the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed over the next couple of days, bringing the center of the storm across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, just west of the main Hawaiian Islands, Monday night.
Hawaiʻi island is will be under a Flood Watch today, as well as a High Surf Advisory for most shores.
“A Flood Watch is in effect for Hawaii Island beginning noon today and running through Tuesday afternoon,” stated the Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense on Sunday. “Parts of Hawaii Island may see rainfall amounts from 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts up to 12 inches. Residents in flood prone areas are advised to take precautions and in particular those areas of the Kau district that were severely impacted by Hurricane Lala.”
From the Central Pacific Hurricane Center discussion posted at 5 a.m. HST:
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft completed a mission in Lowell a few hours ago and measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 114 kt, which typically equates to an intensity of 100-105 kt. However, dropsonde data from the plane also indicated that the central pressure (943 mb) was a bit lower than previously estimated. For that reason, Lowell’s currently intensity is held at 110 kt, which is also very close to the latest UW-CIMSS DPRINT and SATCON estimates.
Lowell is in the midst of its anticipated sharp turn, and the current motion is north-northwestward (335/5 kt). The steering continues to be dominated by a cutoff mid-/upper-level low located about 350 n mi north-northeast of Hawaii, which is forecast to move west-southwestward and cause Lowell to accelerate toward the north and north-northeast through Monday night. The track guidance is tightly packed through that period, although some of the better-performing models (HCCA and GDMI) lie along the eastern edge of the envelope. That required an additional eastward nudge in the official forecast, bringing Lowell’s center near or over the island of Nihoa in 48 hours and about 100 n mi west of Kauai County. After the center passes the Hawaiian Islands, model guidance is in good agreement that Lowell will turn westward by early Friday, but there is some disagreement on the sharpness of that turn.
Vertical shear is expected to remain low for another 12 hours, so fluctuations in intensity will still be possible through this afternoon. South-southwesterly shear is forecast to increase to strong levels by tonight, which should induce a gradual weakening trend while Lowell is passing the Hawaiian Islands. However, even with the weakening, Lowell is not expected to change much in size, and tropical storm conditions are forecast to spread across Kauai and Niihau by Monday afternoon, necessitating the issuance of a tropical storm warning. Lowell is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Wednesday after passing the Hawaiian Islands, and continued weakening is expected through the end of the week due to continued shear, marginal sea surface temperatures, and dry mid-level air.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Lowell is forecast to pass west of Kauai County late Monday into early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Kauai County, including Kauai and Niihau, where tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday morning. Strong wind gusts will be possible atop mountains and on windward and leeward slopes.
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will begin to impact the Hawaiian Islands today and continue through early this week. Periods of heavy rain may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across Kauai County and portions of the Big Island.
3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian Islands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions of Kauai County could also produce coastal flooding and inundation of low-lying areas Monday through Monday night.
