(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea remains paused, and scientists have revised their forecast for the next high lava fountaining episode based on recent observations.
The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory noted on Tuesday that there was a slowed rate of inflation at the summit, and a diminished glow at the Halemaʻumaʻu vents overnight.
“Updated models indicate that the forecast time window for episode 52 fountains is now between July 25 and July 29 due to the current slowdown in summit inflation,” the scientists reported.
The USGS Volcano Alert level for Kīlauea remains at ADVISORY.
From the USGS HVO update issued on Tuesday:
Summit Observations:
Bright glow with periodic flames was visible overnight from the south vent, but the glow was not as bright or as continuous as previous nights, becoming less strong and more intermittent after midnight. Glow from the north vent was weaker than the south vent, and gradually dimmed further between midnight and 3 a.m.
Tremor remains continuous but still has occasional small, ragged tremor bursts. No earthquakes were located beneath the summit of Kīlauea summit in the past 24 hours.
Since episode 51 ended, inflation resumed and has recovered 9 microradians of tilt at the summit tiltmeter at Uēkahuna (UWD). Kīlauea summit deflation totaled 14.7 microradians during episode 51. The rate of summit inflation varied over the past 24 hours and has been relatively flat since before midnight. Reduced vent glow brightness seemed to correlate with lower inflation rates.
The sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate from the summit is likely now varying within a typical range of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day. Degassing plumes from both vents are being blown toward the southwest this morning.
Rift Zone Observations:
Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone. SO2 emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below the detection limit.
Analysis:
The abrupt switch from summit deflation to inflation at the end of episode 51 along with continued glow from the vents indicates that another fountaining episode is likely. Inflation since the end of episode 51 was relatively smooth without significant deflations until yesterday when it became more variable, and it has been relatively flat before midnight. Decreased rates of inflation have extended the forecast window by a day. As of this morning, inflation-based models have a forecast window for the start of episode 52 fountains from July 25 through July 29. Further breaks in inflation or periods of deflation may cause the forecast window to be shifted to a later date.
Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Lava fountaining episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be longer than three weeks.
HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.
