(BIVN) – The eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano is paused, however the next episode of high lava fountaining is expected to occur as early as tomorrow.
Rapid inflation has resumed at the summit within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park. The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory says models indicate the onset of episode 54 is likely between Tuesday, August 25, and Friday, August 28, “with Tuesday to Wednesday most likely if rapid inflation persists.”
Glow from the north and west vents was observed on webcams overnight.
Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park was closed on Monday morning, due to the threat of flooding from the passing Tropical Depression Moke. The park is still recovering from the impacts of Hurricane Lala, which left the park without power.
Officials were concerned an overlap between a possible eruption and potential heavy rains from the storm system would “create extreme conditions not suitable for viewing”.
From the USGS HVO summit on Monday morning:
Summit Observations:
Continuous moderate to strong glow from the north vent was present overnight. Weak, intermittent glow was present at the west vent overnight in the V1 and V3 cameras. The south vent remained dark.
Continuous low-level seismic tremor occurred over the past day. There were no earthquakes recorded in the summit area in the past 24 hours.
The Uēkahuna tiltmeter (UWD) showed the resumption of inflationary tilt over the past day, increasing in rate this morning. UWD has recorded about 11.6 microradians of inflation since the end of episode 53. Deflationary tilt measured by UWD during episode 53 was approximately 13.9 microradians.
During inter-episode pauses, the sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate from the summit typically varies between 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day. Winds are currently from the northeast blowing the gas plume to the southwest.
Rift Zone Observations:
Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone. SO2 emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below the detection limit.
Analysis:
The abrupt switch from summit deflation to inflation at the end of episode 53 along with glow from the vents indicates that episode 54 fountaining is likely. The deflationary step that persisted in recent days ended with the resumption of inflation yesterday, and inflationary tilt rate increased this morning. Inflation continues at a high rate of approximately 3 microradians a day, typical of rebounds after the final deflationary step. If inflation continues at this rate, the onset of episode 54 will likely be tomorrow, Tuesday, or Wednesday. Slowing of the inflation rate or resumption of deflationary steps, neither of which can be forecast, could push the onset of episode 54 back by several days. Inflation models suggest that another episode is likely between Tuesday August 25 and Friday August 28.
Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. A collapse pit in the slope behind the south vent formed a new west vent during episode 53. Lava fountaining episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses of two or more weeks.
HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.
