(BIVN) – Major Hurricane Lowell was 600 miles south-southwest of Oʻahu as of 5 p.m. Friday evening, slowly moving west at 7 mph.
Lowell regained strength on Friday, and has intensified into a category 5 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph. “Some additional intensification is possible over the next day or so, followed by a gradual weakening trend by early next week”, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center says.
Lowell is still expected to turn to the northwest Saturday and north-northeast Sunday. “The forecast track remains west of Kauai County, but certainly close enough to warrant our constant attention,” the National Weather Service says.
“Hurricane Lowell is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals exceeding 10 inches possible, for Kauai and the Big Island,” the Central Pacific Hurricane Center says. “For Maui, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. Across the remaining islands, rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches is possible. This rainfall may produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.”
Hawaiʻi officials held a news conference at noon to discuss the forecast and to urge residents to be prepared.
Video from the State of Hawaiʻi social media livestream, some graphics adjusted by BIVN.
From the Central Pacific Hurricane Center discussion posted at 5 p.m. HST:
Lowell remains an extremely impressive hurricane this afternoon. Satellite imagery continues to show a warm and well-defined eye surrounded by a very symmetric eyewall. The ring of very cold cloud tops surrounding the eye has also expanded during the past few hours, with temperatures generally between -70 and -75 C. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has fallen about 8 mb since 18 UTC, with a recent minimum pressure of 922 mb. The aircraft also measured maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 153 kt in the northeastern eyewall. Given the continued strengthening and impressive satellite presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 140 kt for this advisory, making Lowell a Category 5 hurricane once again.
The initial motion is 275/6 kt. Lowell should continue generally westward through Saturday while being steered by a mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane. On Sunday, the steering pattern is expected to change as a mid- to upper-level low moves south to southeastward to the north of the Hawaiian Islands and weakens the subtropical ridge. This should cause Lowell to turn sharply northward or north-northeastward and accelerate, bringing the hurricane close to the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands Monday and Monday night. There remains some uncertainty in exactly where and how sharply Lowell makes this turn, which will depend on the location and amplitude of the mid- to upper-level low relative to the hurricane. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update from the previous advisory and lies between the simple consensus (TVCN) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
Some additional strengthening appears possible during the next 12 h. Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain weak tonight while Lowell remains over warm waters, and the recent pressure fall and increasingly impressive satellite presentation suggest that the hurricane could further intensify. Thereafter, some gradual weakening is forecast as the hurricane begins to encounter increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The weakening rate should increase by Sunday and Monday as the shear strengthens considerably and Lowell moves over progressively cooler waters and begins to entrain dry mid-level air. Despite the expected weakening, Lowell is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands early next week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to the previous advisory and remains above the guidance envelope through much of the period.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Lowell is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it moves close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night. There is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts for portions of Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week and watches will likely be issued on Saturday. Residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice from local officials.
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will begin to impact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through early next week. Periods of heavy rain may produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase early next week.
