(BIVN) – After being stationary to the south of Hawaiʻi island through the night, Hurricane Nolo has started its anticipated westward movement.
As of 8 a.m. Saturday morning, Nolo was located about 145 miles south of Kaʻū, and moving west at 3 mph.
“Through the night some areas across Hawaii Island reported intermittent episodes of heavy rains and strong wind gusts,” the Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense reported. “A Hurricane Watch, Tropical Storm Warning, and Flood Watch remain in effect for Hawaii Island and residents and businesses are encouraged to continue to prepare for strong winds, heavy rains and possible flooding conditions.”
“As of 9 (p.m.) last night, Highway 250 or the Kohala Mountain Road was closed due to high winds and possible hazardous conditions and remains closed at this time,” the civil defense reported this morning.
All other major roadways and highways are open.
As of Friday morning, Nolo’s hurricane-force winds were extending outward up to 45 miles from its center, and tropical-storm-force winds were extending outward up to 140 miles.
“A wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h) was recently reported at elevation on the northwest part of the Big Island,” the Central Pacific Hurricane Center reported.
“For the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island, Nolo will produce additional rainfall totals 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches, bringing storm totals to 10 to 20 inches with maximum amounts of 25 inches,” the Central Pacific Hurricane Center stated. “This rainfall could produce significant, life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.”
From the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s most recent discussion posted at 5 a.m. HST (note this was written before Nolo began its westward turn):
The radar and satellite presentation of Nolo has not improved since the previous advisory. The eyewall has opened up at times on the north side, and a pronounced dry slot is wrapping around the eastern side of the circulation. Previous aircraft data indicated the central pressure was holding steady around 975 mb. For now, the initial intensity is held at a likely generous 90 kt, in best agreement with recent UW-CIMSS D-PRINT and SATCON estimates. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently entered Nolo and will provide some updated, in situ information about the structure and intensity of the hurricane shortly.
Nolo continues to meander to the south of the Big Island of Hawaii. Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level ridge building to the north of the Hawaiian Islands, which should cause Nolo to begin moving westward later this morning and accelerate westward through the weekend. Early next week, a mid-level trough currently to the northwest of Hawaii will dig southward and steer Nolo toward the northwest and north-northwest on Monday and Tuesday. Then, a westward turn is anticipated on Wednesday as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of Nolo. The track models are in good agreement on keeping the core of Nolo well to the south and southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands during the next several days. No major changes were made to the NHC forecast, which remains close to the simple consensus (TVCN) that has verified well for this event so far.
The hurricane is showing some ill effects of easterly shear and dry air, and its lack of forward motion could be resulting in some upwelling of cooler water. But as Nolo starts moving westward, the vertical wind shear is forecast to weaken, and the SSTs are slightly warmer along the track. So, strengthening is still anticipated during the next couple of days, and the NHC forecast calls for Nolo to become a major hurricane in 24 h. The near-term intensity forecast still lies on the high end of the guidance, favoring the HAFS-A, Google DeepMind, and HCCA solutions. After 48 h, increasing southwesterly shear associated with the trough should induce a weakening trend. This update shows a faster rate of weakening from 60-96 h, following the latest multi-model consensus trends.
Key Messages:
1. Nolo is expected to remain south of the Big Island of Hawaii today before turning westward and moving away from the island. Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the Big Island, especially in areas of steep terrain, and hurricane conditions are possible in those areas today.
2. Periods of heavy rain are expected to expand across the Big Island and eastern Maui through the weekend. Significant, life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain across the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are expected.
3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big Island’s coastline this weekend.
4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County, where gusts to tropical storm force are already occurring in some areas of steep terrain. Regardless of the exact track of Nolo, strong and gusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian Islands through the weekend.
