(ABOVE PHOTO) The latest 5 day track for Tropical Storm Ana, issued at 5 p.m. HST by the National Weather Service
(ABOVE VIDEO) Audio of Hawaii County Civil Defense administrator Darryl Oliveira from an October 13 media conference call. Images from various NOAA / National Weather Service sources on October 13.
- At 5:00 p.m. HST, the center of tropical storm Ana was located near latitude 12.9 north, longitude 142.5 west. Ana is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph, 11 km/h, and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, although a slight turn to the west is forecast. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
- Hawaii County is beginning preliminary preparations for the possibility of a hurricane should Ana strengthen and stay on its forecasted course towards the Big Island.
- During a media conference call on Monday, HCCD admin Darryl Oliveira said the county will be going door to door in areas like Kapoho and Punaluu to warn residents; a lesson learned two months ago in the wake of Hurricane / Tropical Storm Iselle.
Visible satellite images indicate that the low level circulation center /llcc/ of the cyclone is on the eastern periphery of the deep convection. Although the llcc had been partially exposed… Thunderstorms have redeveloped over it during the past couple of hours. Uw-cimss analysis shows 10 to 15 kt of southeasterly shear over the system… Which helped with the determination that the position estimate used in the previous advisory was too far to the west… Prompting an eastward adjustment for this advisory. Given the recent improved satellite appearance and current dvorak intensity estimates of 2.5/35 kt from sab and phfo… The system is upgraded to a tropical storm for this advisory… And is given the Hawaiian name Ana.
With the repositioning… Initial motion is estimated to be 315/06 kt… With the storm being steered by a ridge to the north and northeast. A westward-moving closed low aloft over the Hawaiian Islands will move steadily west through the forecast period. This will allow the ridge to remain north of the system… Keeping the system on a general west-northwest track through day 3… With a relatively slow forward motion. Toward the end of the forecast period… The ridge will slide eastward as a trough aloft passes by to the north… Resulting in a turn toward the northwest. The updated track forecast is close to the previous through day 3… And lies near the middle of a tightly clustered guidance envelope… Although it has been shifted to the right based on today/s developments. On days 4 and 5 the guidance spread increases due to differences in the strength of the passing trough and its impacts on the ridge. The updated forecast is to the right and a little slower than the previous… And is a blend between the previous forecast and the tvcn consensus.
Intensity guidance indicates that steady intensification can be expected over the next couple of days… As the southeasterly shear currently over the system will gradually diminish and then remain light. With water temperatures sufficiently warm along the forecast track… The official forecast closely follows the ships/lgem guidance… With Ana becoming a hurricane by late Wednesday.
Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of this system through the week.National Weather Service discussion on Oct. 13 at 5 p.m.