(BIVN) – Tropical Storm Henriette is 415 miles north-northeast of Hilo, and is expected to pass far north of the Hawaiian Islands as it intensifies, possibly reaching hurricane strength tonight or tomorrow.

At one point, Henriette had weakened to a tropical depression as it moved west into the Central Pacific. It has since intensified significantly. The storm will be far enough away from Hawaiʻi to have any impacts, aside from an influence on wind patterns and humidity.

From the National Weather Service in Honolulu:

An area of high pressure remains well northeast of the state, while Henriette propagates northwestward, maintaining distance away from the islands. As Henriette passes through the region, trades will be disrupted, resulting in a light and variable pattern through Monday afternoon. In the absence of local scale winds, island heating will develop sea breezes each day, and overnight cooling will drive downsloping land breezes each night. During the day, sea breezes will enhance leeward and interior region shower activity, while land breezes overnight will clear the night skies, limiting showers. Additionally, hot and humid conditions can be expected across most locations as dewpoint values are progged to reach and even exceed 70 in some locations, given the influx of excess moisture associated with Henriette while passing in the vicinity of the islands.

Latest projection on the tracking of Henriette has it well north of the islands late Monday into early Tuesday, releasing its influence on the islands, and allowing trades to reestablish across the state. The aforementioned area of high pressure will then regain dominance over the region briefly.

From the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu:

Henriette has intensified significantly overnight. Satellite images show the formation of inner-core features, with recent microwave data from SSMIS showing what appears to be the early stages of a broken eyewall. Intensity estimates have risen, ranging from 35 to 55 kt. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, on the higher side of the range given recent satellite trends.

Despite the marginal water temperatures, further strengthening is expected. Wind shear is forecast to drop to less than 10 kt by tonight, along with a small increase in SSTs and cooling upper-level temperatures. Given the inner-core structure present on microwave and the forecast environment, Henriette is likely to become a hurricane by tomorrow. This forecast is higher than the last advisory and the model consensus, though not as high as the HAFS models. Increasing shear and cooling waters in a few days should cause weakening, and Henriette should dissipate in roughly 4-5 days.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 14 kt. The track forecast of Henriette seems to be straightforward. A large ridge over the north-central Pacific should cause a continued fast northwestward track for several days until its slows down a bit near dissipation. Model guidance is generally west of the last cycle, and the new forecast follows that trend, between the old NHC forecast and the model consensus.