(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea remains paused, as the Hawaiʻi island volcano continues to slowly build to its next episode of high lava fountaining. 

The USGS Volcano Alert Level for Kīlauea is at WATCH, and no significant activity has been noted along the volcano’s East Rift Zone or Southwest Rift Zone. 

The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported on Monday that preliminary models indicate the forecast window for the onset of episode 43 lava fountaining is sometime between March 8th and March 15th. 

“Intermittent glow from the south vent was visible in webcams, but there was no observable glow from the north vent,” the Observatory wrote in a Monday morning update. “This morning, both vents remain quiet and emitting steady gas plumes. Low level seismic tremor continues at the summit. Four small earthquakes less than magnitude 1 were located across the summit region in the past 24 hours.” 

USGS webcam view of the Kilauea summit vent on Monday.

Summit tiltmeters continue to record inflation. The Observatory says the UWD tiltmeter has recorded nearly 22.8 microradians of inflationary tilt since the end of episode 42 on February 15th. 

From the USG HVO analysis published on Monday:

The initial rapid rebound of tilt and glow from both vents indicate that another fountaining episode is likely. The overall inflationary trend has been interrupted by periods of no inflation or slight deflation recorded across all four summit tiltmeters that may impact the onset of episode 43 fountaining. Periods of weak deflation or no inflation have not been common in the early stages of repose between fountaining episodes. These changes in tilt rate are not predictable and create uncertainty in modeling the onset of episode 43 fountaining. Models suggest the forecast window for the start of episode 43 fountaining is likely between March 8 and March 15. The forecast window may change if inflation is interrupted by additional periods of deflation.

Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, primarily from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Eruptive episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be as long as over two weeks.

HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.