(BIVN) – As Kīlauea volcano builds to its next episode, scientists are wondering if the lava fountains will be getting taller.
A recent Volcano Watch article examines how lava chemistry correlates with higher fountains, and scientists are wondering if we might be entering another growth phase.
As of Sunday morning, a period of deflation has delayed the onset of episode 53. Summit vents have gone relatively dark, as has the new crack that we discussed on our previous update. The large gas flames that were previously seen were not observed last night.
The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory has shifted the episode 53 forecast window to between Tuesday, August 11th, and Thursday, August 14th.
The episodic eruption began on December 23rd, 2024. Since then, lava fountains have reached variable heights ranging from 130 feet to 1,770 feet, or 40 meters to 540 meters.
The Volcano Observatory recently wrote that there have been three distinct cycles of fountain height growth, each one followed by a drastic drop: episodes 5 through 16, episodes 17 through 28, and episodes 29 through 43. Scientists say we could be in a fourth growth period that started at episode 44.
The Observatory conducts near real-time chemical analysis of the lava, supported by a cooperative agreement with the University of Hawaii at Hilo and other U.S. volcano observatories.
Scientists have found a connection between fountain heights and magma-chemistry. Initially, they saw no correlation. But for growth period three, scientists found an increase in magnesium oxide occurring as fountain heights were growing taller. When fountain heights abruptly decreased with episode 44, so did the magnesium oxide levels. At that time, a new population of olivine crystals appeared in the lava chemistry, perhaps due to a decrease in magma supply into the chamber beneath the caldera.
The Observatory reports magnesium oxide, and fountain heights, began to increase again during episodes 46 through 48. The correlation could indicate a renewed increase in magma supply, and as a result, Kīlauea could be entering another fountain growth period.
Time will tell if the correlation continues. For now, the USGS Volcano Alert Level for Kīlauea remains at ADVISORY, and the Aviation Color Code is at YELLOW.
