(BIVN) – Hurricane Fausto was 910 miles east of Hilo as of Sunday morning at 5 a.m. HST, moving west at 14 mph into the Central Pacific.
Hurricane Fasuto’s winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to continue.
Fausto is expected to pass north of the Hawaiian islands as a weakening tropical storm. Still, island residents are being urged to monitor the progress of the storm.
From the National Weather Service discussion on Sunday morning:
The satellite imagery this morning shows Hurricane Fausto moving into the Central Pacific basin. A few bands of clouds continue to drift into the islands on the trade winds this morning, producing brief showers mainly along windward mountain areas. Subsidence temperature inversion heights are lower, between 6,000 and 7,000 feet, as measured by the 2 AM HST (12Z) balloon soundings at Lihue and Hilo. These lower heights limit vertical cloud development and reduce shower activity in the short term.
East of the state Hurricane Fausto continues to march westward towards the Hawaiian Islands. Fausto remains on a high confidence track, keeping the center of the storm and the highest impacts passing north of the state. Additionally, the environment ahead of Fausto grows more unfavorable on approach to the islands and we expect Fausto to weaken into a tropical storm before arrival in the Hawaii region. That said, we remain cautious at this stage that even subtle southern shifts in the track or delayed weakening trends may still produce changes to our island by island impacts. We strongly encourage the public to pay close attention to this passing storm system as weather impacts over the Hawaiian Islands early next week will likely evolve over time.
High confidence Fausto impacts… High surf possibly above warning thresholds for east facing shores from Monday through Tuesday. Lesser confidence impacts include… strong winds to around 40 MPH may develop near and north of the low center and possible heavy rain threats from Tuesday through Wednesday.
No time like the present to review your family hurricane preparedness plans, and ensure every household has at least a 14 day supply of food and water available if needed during this years active hurricane season.
From the Central Pacific Hurricane Center discussion at 5 a.m. HST:
Fausto’s structure on satellite imagery continues to slowly lose organization, with the earlier cloud-filled eye no longer being observed. The remaining central dense overcast is also starting to become more asymmetric, likely due to dry air entrainment as seen from an earlier AMSR2 pass that showed the inner-core was significantly eroded on the western side. The 12 UTC subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and PHFO, though their Data-T numbers are decreasing. Objective intensity estimates range from 68 to 82 kt, and the initial intensity is being lowered to 75 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter and NOAA G-IV aircraft are scheduled to investigate the hurricane later today, and their data will be beneficial for refinements to the track and intensity forecast.
The hurricane continues to move westward at 280/12 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next several days as Fausto remains steered by a prominent low to mid-level subtropical ridge centered to its north. While the upper-level portion of this ridge is becoming eroded by a mid-ocean trough located north of Hawaii, Fausto is likely to become more vertically shallow, only being steered by the low-level flow later on in the forecast. The latest track guidance continues to be in good agreement through the next 4-5 days, and the latest NHC track forecast is very close to the prior one, nearest to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) aid. On the forecast track, Fausto should pass to the north of the Hawaiian islands on Tuesday night into Wednesday with the bulk of the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall remaining north of the islands.
Dry air entrainment is likely to continue as Fausto moves into an even drier environment. This should result in continued slow weakening over the next 24 to 36 h. Thereafter, westerly vertical wind shear begins to increase sharply which will further hasten the weakening process, even as the storm begins to move over warmer sea surface temperatures. By the time Fausto passes north of the Hawaiian Islands, it is forecast to be a weakening tropical storm, with the deepest convection becoming increasingly displaced from the low-level center and the strongest winds confined to the northern side of the circulation. By the end of the forecast, Fausto will likely lose convective organization, with it now forecast to become a remnant low in 120 h. The NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the previous advisory and remains on the higher end of the guidance envelope.
Now that Fausto is in the Central Pacific, additional information on Fausto can be found under Central Pacific basin headers beginning with this advisory, 500 AM HST. Future Tropical Cyclone Discussions will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP1 and WMO header WTPA41 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov
Key Messages:
1. Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands this week. Although confidence continues to increase that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain north of the islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the progress of Fausto.
2. Confidence remains high that swells generated by Fausto will reach the Hawaiian Islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing increasing surf and dangerous rip currents. Surf is expected to steadily build westward across the state over the next few days as Fausto approaches and passes to the north.
