(BIVN) – Fausto is now a tropical storm, located about 415 miles east northeast of Hilo as of 5 p.m. on Monday evening.
Tropical Storm Fausto is moving west-northwest at 16 mph. The storm’s maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fausto is expected to continue to weaken as it passes north of the Hawaiian Islands during the next few days.
Powerful surf generated by Fausto is beginning to impact east-facing shores of Hawaiʻi island. A High Surf Warning was issued for the windward shores of North Kohala, Hāmākua, Hilo, Puna and Kaʻū on Monday. The Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense reported the following beach closures in the Keaukaha-area of Hilo:
- Onekahakaha Beach Park
- Kealoha Beach Park
- Carl Smith Beach Park
- Leleiwi Beach Park
- Waiolena Beach Park
- Waiuli Beach Park
- Richardson’s Ocean Park
- Lehia Beach Park
- Lalakea Beach Park
Surf is building to 14 to 18 feet and is expected to peak on Tuesday.
From the Central Pacific Hurricane Center discussion at 5 p.m. HST:
Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission from a few hours ago and current satellite-observed trends indicate that the tropical cyclone is gradually weakening. The maximum 700 mb flight-level winds from the aircraft were 64 kt over the northwest quadrant of the circulation, and the estimated minimum central pressure has risen to at least 996 mb. Based on these observations, the system is being downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm for this advisory. Fausto’s convective cloud pattern is becoming less organized with the banding features starting to lose definition, although there are still some very cold cloud tops near the estimated center. Upper-level outflow remains strong over the northern portion of the circulation.
Center fixes indicate that the tropical cyclone continues moving west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy. Fausto should continue to be steered on a general west-northwestward track by the mid- to low level environmental flow for the next several days. The official forecast is quite similar to the latest corrected consensus dynamical guidance and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. This is basically an update of the previous NHC forecast. On this track, Fausto should pass north of the Hawaiian Islands Tuesday night into Wednesday.
West-southwesterly vertical wind shear, associated with a belt of strong upper-level winds near the Hawaiian Islands, is likely to increase further over Fausto. Moreover, the cyclone will be moving through a very dry air mass, with low- to mid-level relative humidities on the order of 35 percent as diagnosed by the SHIPS model. These hostile atmospheric conditions should result in continued weakening of Fausto through the forecast period. The official forecast calls for the system to become a post-tropical cyclone in 72 hours, but simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest that it could become one even sooner than indicated here.
Key Messages:
1. Fausto is expected to continue weakening as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands this week. Although the current forecast indicates that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain north of the islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the progress of Fausto.
2. Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward across Hawaii along exposed east-facing shores through Tuesday as Fausto approaches and begins to pass north of the islands. Large surf and strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions along exposed shores. Please consult products from your local weather office.
