(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea is paused. The USGS Volcano Alert Level remains at WATCH. 

“Summit inflation and seismic tremor continued over the past 24 hours,” wrote the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory on Wednesday. “Based on preliminary data, the current forecast for the onset of episode 42 lava fountaining is between February 9 and 20.” 

No significant activity has been noted along Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone or Southwest Rift Zone. 

USGS webcam shows the gas plume at the summit of Kīlauea on Wednesday

From the USGS HVO daily update:

Summit Observations:

Intermittent moderate glow from the south vent and intermittent minor glow from the north vent was visible on webcams overnight.

The Uēkahuna tiltmeter (UWD) has recorded 9 microradians of inflation since the end of episode 41, including 1 microradian of invlation in the past 24 hours.

Seismic tremor continued in the past 24 hours with 2-3 pulses of increased tremor about every ten minutes. About 3 earthquakes were located beneath Kīlaueaʻs summit in the past 24 hours.

The sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate from the summit was last measured on January 14 at 1,550 tonnes per day, which is within the typical range of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes of SO2 per day observed during previous eruptive pauses. This is considerably lower than rates observed during lava fountaining episodes.

Rift Zone Observations:

Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain very low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone. SO2 emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below the detection limit.

Analysis:

The rapid rebound of inflationary tilt, glow from the vents, and presence of low-level volcanic tremor after episode 41 indicate that another lava fountaining episode is likely. Based on preliminary data, the current forecast for the onset of episode 42 lava fountaining is between February 10 to 20, 2026, but more time and data are needed for a more accurate forecast.

Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, primarily from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Eruptive episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be as long as over two weeks.

HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.