(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano remains paused, although starting tomorrow the forecasted window for the next lava fountaining episode opens.

The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory has says the modeled forecast window for the onset of episode 43 lava fountaining is March 10th to March 14th.

In the last 24 hours, continuous inflation of the summit has been observed, and as of early Monday evening there has not been any change in ground deformation that would delay the window for episode 43.

“Continuous strong glow was observed at the north and south vents. This morning, both vents remain quiet and emitting steady gas plumes,” the Observatory reported. “Continuous low level seismic tremor was observed over the last 24 hours. There were five small earthquakes located in the summit region in the last 24 hours; all events were less than magnitude one.”

Last week, geologists replaced one of the webcams livestreaming video of the summit vents (the V1 camera). The new camera model is equipped with an outdoor microphone. “The microphone is working well but the only sound right now is the wind,” the Observatory noted on Saturday.

The view from the newly installed USGS V1 camera

From the HVO analysis provided on Monday morning:

The initial rapid rebound of tilt and glow from both vents indicate that another fountaining episode is likely. The overall inflationary trend has been interrupted by periods of no inflation or slight deflation recorded across all four summit tiltmeters that may impact the onset of episode 43 fountaining. Periods of weak deflation or no inflation have not been common in the early stages of repose between fountaining episodes. These changes in tilt rate are not predictable and create uncertainty in modeling the onset of episode 43 fountaining. Models indicate the forecast window for the start of episode 43 fountaining is likely between March 10 and March 14. The forecast window may change if inflation is interrupted by additional periods of deflation.

Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, primarily from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Eruptive episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be as long as over two weeks.

HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.