(BIVN) – The eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano remains paused, as ongoing inflation indicates the build towards the next episode of high lava fountaining continues.
On Wednesday, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported forecast models indicate that the onset of episode 50 “is likely to begin between June 23 and June 27 with June 25-26 most likely.”
No significant activity has been noted along Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone or Southwest Rift Zone, and the USGS Volcano Alert Level is at ADVISORY.
UPDATE – (9:30 a.m.) – From the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory on Thursday morning:
Summit Observations:
Continuous periods of bright glow and large flames were visible from the south vent in Halemaʻumaʻu overnight. There was no observable glow from the north vent on the webcameras last night.
Low frequency pulses of seismic tremor continue this morning, which is typical between eruptive episodes. There were four earthquakes within Kaluapele (Kīlauea caldera) in the past 24 hours, all with magnitudes less than one.
Kīlauea summit deflation totaled 15.5 microradians during episode 49. Once the episode ended, inflation resumed and has since recovered 7.7 microradians of tilt at the summit tiltmeter at Uēkahuna (UWD).
With the eruption now paused, the sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate from the summit is likely now varying within a typical range of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day.
Rift Zone Observations:
Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone. SO2 emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below the detection limit.
Analysis:
The abrupt switch from deflation to inflation at the end of episode 49 along with glow from the vents indicates that episode 50 fountaining is likely. Initial models suggest another fountaining episode may occur between June 23-27 with June 25-26 most likely.
Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, from two vents (north and south) in Halemaʻumaʻu. Lava fountaining episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be longer than three weeks.
HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park and the Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.
