(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea remains paused, with the next episode of high lava fountaining expected in about one week.
“Summit tilt continues on a weak deflationary trend from yesterday to this morning,” the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory wrote on Monday morning. Scientists say the trend has pushed the forecast window for episode 53 back to between August 7th and August 14th.
Glow was observed from both vents overnight, and there no significant activity along Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone or Southwest Rift Zone.
From the Monday morning update by the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory:
Summit Observations:
Intermittent, moderate glow continued from the north vent overnight. Rare glow was observed from the south vent and from a crack that opened upslope of the south vent in the early morning of July 30.
Summit tremor has become more continuous but is has small, ragged tremor peaks spaced 10-30 minutes apart.. One earthquake was detected beneath the summit region over the the last 24 hours.
Since episode 52 ended, UWD has recorded a total of 5.9 microradians of inflationary tilt. This amount has been reduced by weak deflationary tilt that has been recorded by summit tiltmeters throughout yesterday and continuing this morning. Deflationary tilt measured at a summit tiltmeter at Uēkahuna (UWD) totaled 14.4 microradians during episode 52.
The sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate from the summit is likely now varying within a typical range of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day. Winds are currently from the north-northeast, and the degassing plumes are being blown to the south-southwest.
Rift Zone Observations:
Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone. SO2 emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below the detection limit.
Analysis:
The abrupt switch from summit deflation to inflation at the end of episode 52 along with glow from the vents indicates that episode 53 fountaining is likely. Deflationary tilt has been recorded at the summit since late Saturday night. Current tilt-based models have a forecast window for episode 52 from August 7 through August 14. Deflationary tilt over the past day has pushed the forecast window later in time, further adjustments could occur if there are changes in tilt trends.
Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Lava fountaining episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be longer than three weeks.
HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.
