(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano remains paused, with the next episode of high lava fountaining delayed due to fluctuations in ground deformation.
The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported on Wednesday that “the summit switched back to inflation yesterday afternoon, July 7,” adding that “current forecast models suggest that lava fountaining episode 51 will occur sometime between July 11 and 15.”
The most recent episode of high lava fountaining, episode 50, occurred on June 27, 2026, and lasted for seven hours. Tephra fall during the event was restricted mostly to the closed area of Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, with light fall of Peleʻs hair reported from the town of Pāhala in Kaʻū.
From the USGS HVO on Wednesday:
Summit Observations:
Variable glow was visible at the south vent overnight, ranging from weak to strong. The north vent was dark most of the night, with glow returning to the vent around 3:00 a.m. HST. On an overflight of Kīlauea summit yesterday afternoon, crews spotted an incandescent lava surface deep within the south vent, but no lava was visible in the north vent.
Low-level seismic tremor continues during the current pause with occasional bursts, likely in association with gas piston cycles in the eruptive vents. Earthquake activity beneath Kaluapele (Kīlauea caldera) remains low.
Kīlauea summit has been reinflating since yesterday afternoon, July 7, but several deflationary trends have interrupted the overall inflationary pattern following episode 50. Tilt recovery since the episode presently stands at 10.2 microradians on the Uēkahuna (UWD) tiltmeter, an increase of 0.6 microradians since yesterday morning. Summit deflation totaled 15.3 microradians on UWD during episode 50.
The sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate from the summit is likely now varying within a typical range of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day.
Rift Zone Observations:
Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone. SO2 emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below the detection limit.
Analysis:
Summit reinflation continues but has been interrupted by two brief transition to slow deflationary tilt, which have pushed back the forecast window for episode 51. Vent glow has been continuous since the end of episode 50. These observations indicate that another lava fountaining episode is still likely. The current forecast suggests that episode 51 will occur sometime between July 11 and 15, but if there are additional periods of slow deflation, it will further delay the onset of the episode.
Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Lava fountaining episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be longer than three weeks.
HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.
