(BIVN) – The eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano remains paused. Continued deflation has pushed back the forecasted window for the start of episode 51 to sometime between tomorrow, July 14 and Thursday, July 16.
The Volcano Alert Level for Kīlauea remains at ADVISORY.
From the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory on Monday:
Summit Observations:
Continuous strong glow was visible from the north vent overnight, with intermittent strong glow from the south vent and occasional flames. No spatter has been visible from either vent since Saturday morning, July 11.
Steady, low-level seismic tremor was alternating with short periods of reduced tremor followed by spikes related to gas piston activity in the south vent. Earthquake activity beneath Kaluapele (Kīlauea caldera) remains low.
Kīlauea summit has recorded about 0.9 microradian of deflationary tilt over the past day on the UWD tiltmeter, and about 1.8 microradians of deflationary tilt since this trend began on Saturday morning, July 11. Tilt recovery since the end of episode 50 has dropped from 15.4 microradians on July 11 to 13.6 microradians as of this morning. Summit deflation totaled 15.3 microradians on UWD during episode 50.
The sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate from the summit is likely now varying within a typical range of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day.
Rift Zone Observations:
Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone. SO2 emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below the detection limit.
Analysis:
Summit deflation continues since Saturday morning, pushing back the forecast window for episode 51. Two similar deflationary trends have interrupted the overall inflationary pattern following episode 50 and each lasted 1-2 days. Each of these pushed the forecast window back 1-2 days. Strong continuous glow from the north vent along with intermittent but strong glow from the south vent overnight, indicates that magma remains relatively close to the surface. The current forecast suggests that episode 51 will occur sometime between tomorrow, July 14, and Thursday, July 16, but this time window could be pushed back further if summit deflation continues.
Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Lava fountaining episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be longer than three weeks.
HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.
