(BIVN) – A number of storm systems are developing in the Eastern Pacific, far from the State of Hawaiʻi.
Tropical Storm Elida, 985 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California as of Sunday morning, is expected to weaken as it moves towards the north northwest. The National Hurricane Center expects Elida will be a remnant low in a couple of days.
Tropical Depression Six-E, farther to the southeast of Elida, is likely to strengthen significantly during the next few days.
“The environment ahead of the system is likely to remain quite conductive for strengthening, with one negative factor being the cooling of ocean waters due to the previous passage of Tropical Storm Elida,” the National Hurricane Center reported on Sunday morning. “Dynamical guidance shows low vertical wind shear during the next few days as reflected by the SHIPS model output. Therefore significant strengthening should occur with the cyclone becoming a hurricane by late Monday or early Tuesday.”
A third point of interest in the Eastern Pacific is a broad area of low pressure that is forecast to develop well south of Mexico during the latter part of the week. Forecasters say “environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific.”
Although the storms do not pose an immediate threat to Hawaiʻi, local forecasters are monitoring the development of the systems.
“Forecast confidence beyond the middle of the next week becomes increasingly dependent on the evolution of the tropical disturbances currently located well east of the Central Pacific near the Mexican coast,” the Honolulu-based national Weather Service wrote in a Sunday morning discussion. “While deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests some westward progression, it remains far too early to determine whether any of these systems or their associated moisture will influence the Hawaiian Islands. At this time, no changes to the sensible weather forecast are warranted, though these tropical features will continue to be monitored closely over the coming days as forecast confidence increases.”
There is also an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. The system, associated with a trough of low pressure, could develop as it moves westward and away from the Hawaiian islands during the next several days, forecaster say.
Earlier this year, forecasters predicted a 70% chance of an above-normal season for the central Pacific basin, which runs June 1 to November 30.
