(BIVN) – The eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano is currently paused, but there has been enough inflation to allow scientists to make a preliminary calculation for the next episode of high lava fountaining.
Since episode 52 ended, a summit tiltmeter at Uēkahuna has recorded 4.5 microradians of inflationary tilt. The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported on Friday that preliminary models indicate that the forecast window for episode 53 is between August 6 and August 14.
The forecast window will likely be adjusted in the days ahead. Already, there have been “a couple short instances of low to flat tilt rate” during the inflationary trend observed since the end of episode 52.
From the USGS HVO update on Friday, July 31:
Summit Observations:
Bright glow and flames continued from the north vent overnight, while glow from the south vent was much diminished. Intermittent soft glow was visible from the crack that opened upslope of the south vent in the early morning of July 30. A few incandescent spots continue to be visible overnight from lava flows that erupted onto the floor of Halema’uma’u crater during episode 52. Slow movements from cooling lava flows and gravity induced slumps on the vents are expected to continue in the coming days and nights.
Low-frequency seismic pulsing began with the cessation of episode 52 and continues with rhythmic tremor spikes every 5-10 minutes. No earthquakes were detected beneath the summit region in the past 24 hours.
Since episode 52 ended, UWD has recorded 4.5 microradians of inflationary tilt. Deflationary tilt measured at a summit tiltmeter at Uēkahuna (UWD) totaled 14.4 microradians during episode 52. Steady inflationary tilt has been observed since the end of episode 52 with a couple short instances of low to flat tilt rate.
The sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate from the summit is likely now varying within a typical range of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day. Winds are currently from the north-northeast, and the degassing plumes are being blown to the south-southwest.
Rift Zone Observations:
Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone. SO2 emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below the detection limit.
Analysis:
The abrupt switch from summit deflation to inflation at the end of episode 52 along with glow from the vents indicates that episode 53 fountaining is likely. Preliminary tilt-based models have a forecast window for episode 52 from August 6 through August 14.
Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Lava fountaining episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be longer than three weeks.
HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.
