(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano remains paused, but the window for the next episode of high lava fountaining is open.
The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory said on Friday that forecast models indicate that episode 49 is likely to occur between Saturday, June 13th, and Monday, June 15th.
Strong glow was visible at the vents within Halemaʻumaʻu on Saturday morning, with occasional high flames at the south vent. This is an indication that magma is close to the surface, scientists say.
The USGS Volcano Alert Level for Kīlauea is at WATCH.
UPDATE – (8:35 a.m.) – From the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory analysis on Saturday morning:
Continued repose period inflation, tremor, and glow from the vents all indicate that episode 49 is likely. Inflation returned to slow steady inflation across the summit yesterday after the brief decrease the previous day. While a few models show a slight possibility of the start of fountaining today June 13, the lack of any precursory spattering or overflows make it seem highly unlikely. Forecast models based on Kīlauea summit region inflation rates suggest that the start of fountaining episode 49 is most likely Sunday June 13 through Monday June 15 with a slight chance of Tuesday, June 16. These models suggest that Sunday June 14 or Monday June 15 are most likely. The seismic velocity model favors Monday June 15. If inflation decreases more or deflation occurs at the summit, it could push the forecast further back. Any unpredictable increase in the threshold inflation target (based upon the previous episode deflation) could also push the start back. However, the seismic model is independent of this factor and is currently forecasting the onset of fountaining in the same time range as inflation-based model.
