(ABOVE IMAGE) A National Weather Service image shows the latest 5 day track for Tropical Storm Ana (Oct. 14 at 5 p.m.)
(ABOVE VIDEO) Audio of Hawaii County Civil Defense administrator Darryl Oliveira answering media questions during an October 14 conference call. Images from various NOAA / National Weather Service / Big Island Video News sources.
- Tropical Storm Ana is 765 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii and moving west at 10 miles per hour.
- Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with Ana expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday.
- 25 to 40 foot surf is expected, possibly beginning as early as Friday. Civil Defense says they plan to go door to door to inform residents in low lying coastal areas, like Kapoho, before Ana’s arrival.
Ana continues to present a satellite signature consistent with that of a strong tropical storm… With the llcc embedded within a persistent cold central dense overcast. Latest dvorak intensity estimates are 3.5/55 kt from phfo and pgtw… While sab came in with 4.0/65 kt. As the satellite presentation has changed little since the previous advisory… The intensity will be held at 55 kt for this cycle. An ascat pass around 1930z was helpful in refining the wind radii for this package.
Ana is currently moving west… To the left and a little faster than the previous short term forecast track. The initial motion estimate is 270/09 kt… With Ana being steered by a deep layer ridge centered to its north. Although significant southerly shear… Near 50 kt… Currently exists between Ana and the main Hawaiian Islands… Ana is not expected to be exposed to this area of debilitating shear. Instead the ridge to the north will keep minimal shear over the system through day 3 as a closed low aloft near the Hawaiian Islands treks steadily west. The ridge will slide southeastward Friday and Saturday… With Ana then expected to move on an increasingly northwestward track. Toward the end of the forecast period… A mid-latitude trough passing north of the system will weaken the steering currents while also introducing a shear profile that is expected to lead to modest weakening. The potential interaction between Ana and the trough introduces increasing uncertainty to the track forecast at longer ranges. The updated track forecast is very close to the previous and lies near the middle of track guidance… Which is showing less spread over the last couple of cycles.
The intensity forecast remains essentially unchanged from the previous advisory… And follows the trend presented by the icon consensus. Ana is still expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday as shear will remain light and water temperatures sufficiently warm to support continued intensification. Peak intensity is expected Thursday and Friday. A gradual weakening trend is forecast Saturday and Sunday as the system encounters increasing shear… A slightly drier environment… And the low level inflow becomes disrupted due to proximity to the Hawaiian Islands.
Interests in the main hawaiian islands should continue to monitor the progress of Ana.National Weather Service on Oct. 14