(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea remains paused, with the previous activity (Episode 7) ending on January 28th.
A new eruptive episode (Episode 8) could begin any day, confined to the caldera within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park.
Scientists with the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory calculate the eruption may resume sometime between February 1st and February 3rd, based on current rates of summit inflation.
From a recent USGS HVO update:
Summit Observations:
Lava flows from episode 7 covered nearly half of Halemaʻumaʻu crater floor. Spots of orange glow can still be seen on the crater floor as the erupted lava continues to cool. Glow and infrequent spatter from the eruptive vents overnight and continued degassing indicates that magma is close to the surface.
The Uēkahuna tiltmeter (UWD) recorded a minor deflationary event yesterday that started at about 2:30 p.m. and lasted approximately 1.5 hours before turning back to inflation. Another possible deflationary excursion appears to be starting as of 8:30 a.m. today. The UWD tiltmeter has recorded a net gain of approximately 6 microradians of inflationary tilt since the end of episode 7. Three earthquakes below M1.0 were recorded in the summit region over the past 24 hours. Low level seismic tremor continues.
Weather conditions and episode timing have prevented accurate measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate since earlier in the eruption sequence. Based on emissions measured during earlier episodes and pauses, SO2 emission rates are estimated to be near 1,000 t/d.
Strands of volcanic glass known as Pele’s Hair have been reported on surfaces throughout the summit area of Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park and surrounding communities.
Rift Zone Observations:
Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain very low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone with only a few recorded earthquakes below M1.0 in the past 24 hours.
Analysis:
The current eruption is marked by episodic fountaining not seen in any of the other Halemaʻumaʻu eruptions since 2020. Fountains and lava flows have erupted from two vents that we refer to as the north vent and south vent. The previous 7 fountaining episodes lasted from a few hours to over a week. Each fountaining episode has been accompanied by strong deflation of the summit region. Pauses between the fountaining episodes have been marked by an immediate change from deflation to inflation as the magma chamber recharges and repressurizes.
Episode 7 began after recovering only 3 microradians of inflationary tilt, the amount lost during episode 6. More than 7 microradians of deflationary tilt were lost during episode 7. The eruption may therefore resume when approximately 7 microradians of inflationary tilt are recovered. UWD has recorded a net gain of approximately 6 microradians of inflationary tilt since the end of episode 7. The rate of inflationary tilt is currently about 1-2 microradian per day. If this rate continues, then another eruptive episode could begin within the next 1 to 3 days (February 1 – February 3). However, deflationary excursions in summit tilt observed over the past 24 hours may indicate a change compared to previous eruptive episodes.
HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.
by Big Island Video News9:36 am
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STORY SUMMARY
HAWAIʻI VOLCANOES NATIONAL PARK - Scientists calculate a new eruptive episode may begin within the next 1 to 3 days within the summit caldera.