(BIVN) – Episode 18 in the ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea continues, although the vents within Halemaʻumaʻu have not erupted lava since Wednesday night. 

On Thursday, scientists with the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory wrote that the main lava fountaining phase of episode 18 “is most likely to start sometime between today and this weekend, with the possibility of more lava flows preceding the fountaining phase.” 

No significant activity has been noted along Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone or Southwest Rift Zone, and the USGS Volcano Alert Level remains at WATCH. 

USGS webcam image shows summit vents on Friday morning

From the Thursday analysis posted by the USGS HVO:

The current eruption has been characterized by episodic fountaining not seen in any of the other Halemaʻumaʻu eruptions since 2020. Fountains and lava flows have erupted from two vents that we refer to as the north vent and south vent. Each of the previous 17 fountaining episodes lasted from a few hours to over a week and has been accompanied by strong deflation of the summit region. Pauses between the fountaining episodes have been marked by an immediate change from deflation to inflation as the magma chamber recharges and repressurizes.

Analysis of inflationary tilt patterns prior to the onset of each fountaining episode allows a time window of probability for the onset of new episodes to be estimated. These are calculated using both minimum inflation necessary to start a new eruption and the rate of inflation fit to data derived from past eruptive episodes. The precursory activity of episode 18 occurred as forecast, although deflation and the onset of the main phase of fountaining has yet to start for episode 18. This main fountaining phase could start today to sometime over the weekend, with the possibilities of more lava flows preceding the fountaining phase. This window may be adjusted if inflation rates change significantly. Based upon prior cycles of fountaining and deflation, episode 18 fountaining is likely to be less than 24 hours long.