(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano is paused, but signs of the next lava fountaining episode are already visible. 

On Monday morning, strong glow and visible spattering could be seen on USGS webcams. The activity shows magma has risen high in the north vent, scientists say.  

“Gas-pistoning resumed just after 2 a.m. HST, spattering is associated with drainback events,” the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory stated at sunrise. “Episode 31 could start today but is more likely August 19 or 20.”  

USGS webcam shows the Kīlauea summit vents on Monday morning after sunrise

From today’s USGS HVO analysis:

Current inflation rates have been about 1 microradian a day which is normal for this part of the repose period. Models now show the possible onset of episode 31 fountains to likely be between August 18 and August 22 with the most likely period being August 19 to August 21. If increasing vent elevation (see below) is factored into the model the likely window for the onset of fountaining is August 19 to August 23. Any changes in inflation rate will affect the models. Periods of no inflation or deflation, as seen prior to episode 30, cannot be forecast and will delay the onset of the next episode.

NOTE: The V3 camera is currently in Black and White Infrared Mode at night and is much more sensitive to heat and light than the V1 camera at this time.

The injection of a shallow dike resulted in the new southern fissure vent at the onset of episode 30. Dike emplacement in the south caldera suggests that eruptive pressure continues to increase as the vent elevation gets higher and magma can be injected into weak areas of the surrounding summit. It is possible this could result in permanent change in the vent locations and eruptive behavior. Currently, there are no indications that any eruptive activity would occur outside of the summit region. Kīlaueaʻs East Rift Zone continues to contract, indicating no magma is entering that part of the system.

The current eruption has been characterized by episodic lava fountaining not seen in any eruptions since the 1983–86 episodic fountains at the beginning of the Puʻuʻōʻō eruption. Lava fountains and flows have erupted from two vents within Halemaʻumaʻu crater that we refer to as the north vent and south vent. Each of the previous fountaining episodes lasted from a few hours to over a week and was accompanied by strong deflation of the summit region. Pauses between the fountaining episodes have been marked by an immediate switch from deflation to inflation as the magma chamber recharges and repressurizes. Fountaining episodes have occurred approximately once per week since the start of the current eruption on December 23, 2024.

HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.

The USGS Volcano Alert Level for Kīlauea remains at WATCH.