(BIVN) – The episodic eruption at the summit of Kīlauea remains paused, and scientists are adjusting their projected window for the next instance of high lava fountaining based on changes to the rate of inflation.  

Scientists with the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory noted Wednesday morning that summit inflation slowed after slight deflation was recorded overnight. 

“As of this morning, about 11.6 microradians of inflationary tilt have been recorded by UWD since the end of episode 37,” the USGS HVO stated on Wednesday, “with no inflation or deflation after last night’s slight deflation around midnight.” 

The Observatory says the next fountaining episode is likely between December 6 and 10, based on ground deformation models. 

USGS graph (over USGS webcam view of the summit caldera) shows deformation over the past month, with a stall in the rate of inflation visible in recent days.

From the USGS HVO on Wednedsday:

The recent inflationary tilt following the end of episode 37 along with glow and tremor indicates that another eruptive episode is likely. This morning’s flat ground tilt indicates another period of slowed inflation, which has pushed back the forecast of the onset of episode 38. Current deformation models indicate that the next episode is likely to begin between December 6 and 10, with December 7 and 8 most likely. The forecast may continue to change if there are more episodes of deflation or periods of slow to no inflation.

HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.

The USGS Volcano Alert Level for Kīlauea remains at WATCH.