(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano on Hawaiʻi island is currently paused, with another episode of high lava fountains expected to occur next week. 

On Tuesday, scientists with the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported the onset of episode 39 is likely to happen between December 22 and 27. 

The Observatory noted “some discrepancies between the inflation models,” and said “the forecast interval may change if the inflation rate varies.” 

Since the end of the prior episode, Kīlauea has inflated over 22 microradians as recorded on the UWD tiltmeter. 

USGS: “This reference map depicts the Kīlauea summit eruption within Halema‘uma‘u crater that began on December 23, 2024. As of this posting on December 11, 2025, the eruption has had thirty-eight episodes, with the most recent occurring on December 6. Most of the map data included here were collected during a USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory helicopter overflight on December 9, so the provided statistics are reflective of the entire eruption to this point.”

UPDATE – (11:30 a.m. HST) – From the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory: 

Summit Observations:

Regular periods of glow were observed at the south vent. No glow could be identified at the north vent though low visibility conditions dominated overnight. Seismic signals showed pronounced tremor bursts every 3-12 minutes over the last 24 hours with these bursts possibly related to gas pistoning at the volcano.

Since the end of episode 38, Kīlauea has inflated 23.3 microradians as recorded on the UWD tiltmeter this morning with an increase of 2 microradians in the last 24 hours.

Rift Zone Observations:

Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain very low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone. SO2 emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below the detection limit.

Analysis:

The rapid rebound of inflationary tilt, continued tremor indicative of gas pistoning, and glow from the south vent all indicate another fountain episode will occur. There are some discrepancies between the inflation models, but the onset of episode 39 is most likely between December 22 and 27. The forecast interval may change if the inflation rate varies.

Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, primarily from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Eruptive episodes, which can last up to 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be as long as two weeks.

HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.