(BIVN) – The ongoing, yearlong eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano is paused. The next episode of high lava fountaining is expected to occur in early January. 

Summit inflation continues, and on Sunday the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported forecasting models “suggest the window for lava fountaining episode 40 is between January 8 and 14.” 

Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone remain quiet, the Observatory says. Current volcanic gas emission rates “probably remain in the range of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes of sulfur dioxide (SO2) per day”, scientists say. 

USGS webcam shows the Kīlauea summit on Monday morning

From the USGS HVO analysis on Sunday:

The rapid rebound of inflationary tilt and presence of low-level volcanic tremor after episode 39 indicate that another lava fountaining episode is likely to occur. Forecasting models suggest the window for episode 40 is between January 8 and 14, with one model showing as late as January 16. Current inflation rates are significantly slower than those leading up to episode 39, and the forecast window may change as more data is incorporated into the models.

Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, primarily from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Eruptive episodes, which can last up to 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be as long as over two weeks.

HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.