(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano on Hawaiʻi island is paused, and a period of deflationary tilt has delayed the anticipated start of the next episode of high lava fountaining.

The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory says episode 42 is now forecast to begin sometime between February 12 and 15, based on current models of summit deformation. Summit inflation switched to deflation Monday morning, and deflation continued until just before noon on Tuesday.

From the USGS HVO on Tuesday morning, before the deflation leveled-off:

Summit Observations:

Moderate glow was visible at the south and north vents overnight in the webcams.

Seismic tremor continued over the past 24 hours and has been relatively steady over the past day. Earthquake activity was low.

The Uēkahuna tiltmeter (UWD) showed the onset of deflationary tilt yesterday morning, and deflation continues today. Total deflation in the past day is slightly over 2.5 microradians. This deflation interrupts the inflationary trend since the end of episode 41, with a total of 24.7 microradians of inflationary tilt since the end of that episode.

The sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate from the summit was last measured on February 2 at 5,172 tonnes per day, which is slightly higher than the typical range of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes of SO2 per day observed during previous eruptive pauses. This is considerably lower than rates observed during lava fountaining episodes. This morning, webcams show that the plume from the summit vents is being carried to the southwest. The National Weather Service forecast indicates north northeast winds at 24-29 mph this morning, decreasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon.

USGS: “View of Kaluapele (Kīlauea’s summit caldera) from the B1 webcam on February 6, 2026, acquired between lava fountaining episodes 41 and 42.”

Rift Zone Observations:

Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain very low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone. SO2 emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below the detection limit.

Analysis:

The rapid rebound of inflationary tilt, glow from the vents, and presence of low-level volcanic tremor after episode 41 indicate that another lava fountaining episode is likely. Glow from both vents was present overnight, suggesting magma is high in the column. Deflation over the past day likely delays the onset of lava fountaining. Models indicate that episode 42 fountaining is likely to start within the forecast window of February 12 to 15. The forecast window may change if the inflation rate changes significantly.

Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, primarily from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Eruptive episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be as long as over two weeks.

HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.