(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea is paused, and the next episode of high lava fountaining is expected soon. However, an instance of sharp deflation that occurred on Monday could further delay the event.
On Memorial Day, scientists with the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported episode 48 would most likely start either yesterday or today (Monday or Tuesday), according to their inflation-based forecast models.
There was no precursory activity observed at the summit on Monday, and then a sharp deflation of Kīlauea’s summit began just after 4 pm HST.
Summit tiltmeters “recorded a drop of 1 microradian on the UWD tiltmeter,” the Observatory noted. “This will push back the episode 48 fountain forecast to May 26-27.”
No significant activity has been noted along Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone or Southwest Rift Zone.
The USGS Volcano Alert Level for Kīlauea remains at ADVISORY.
UPDATE – (10 a.m.) – From the USGS HVO daily update on Tuesday morning:
Forecast models based on summit tilt and seismic velocity indicate that episode 48 fountains are most likely between Wednesday and Friday (May 27-29), but the ongoing deflation may push that window out further depending on how long deflation persists. The forecast window may change as more data are incorporated into the models.
