(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano remains paused, and the next episode of high lava fountaining could occur this weekend.
The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported on Friday that forecasts based on summit inflation indicate episode 51 is likely between July 11 and 13.
“Overnight webcam views showed strong glow at both the north and south eruptive vents, and rare spatter from the north vent,” the Observatory noted.
From the Friday update by the USGS HVO:
Summit Observations:
Strong glow was continuously visible from both the north and south vents overnight, along with rare spatter from the north vent, indicating the magma column is relatively high in both vents.
Low-level seismic tremor continues during the current pause with occasional bursts, likely in association with gas piston cycles in the eruptive vents. Earthquake activity beneath Kaluapele (Kīlauea caldera) remains low.
Kīlauea summit has recorded inflationary tilt over the past two days, but deflationary trends have interrupted the overall inflationary pattern following episode 50. Tilt recovery since the episode presently stands at about 14.1 microradians on the Uēkahuna (UWD) tiltmeter, an increase of 2 microradians since yesterday morning. Summit deflation totaled 15.3 microradians on UWD during episode 50.
The sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate from the summit is likely now varying within a typical range of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day.
Rift Zone Observations:
Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone. SO2 emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below the detection limit.
Analysis:
Summit reinflation continues but was interrupted by two shifts to deflationary tilt, which pushed back the forecast window for episode 51. Vent glow has been continuous since the end of episode 50. Strong glow from both vents, and rare spattering in the north vent overnight, indicates that magma is near the surface. The current forecast suggests that episode 51 will occur sometime between July 11 and 13 if there are no additional deflationary events.
Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Lava fountaining episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be longer than three weeks.
HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.
