(BIVN) – The eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano is currently paused, although the next episode of high lava fountaining could occur as early as this weekend.
The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported on Monday that preliminary models indicate that the forecast window for episode 52 is between July 24 and July 28, with July 25 to July 27 most likely.
Webcams showed volcanic gas billowing from the vents within Halemaʻumaʻu on Monday afternoon.
From the USGS HVO update published on Monday morning:
Summit Observations:
Strong continuous glow with periodic flames was visible overnight from the south vent. Glow from the north vent was also nearly continuous last night but was much weaker than the glow from the south vent.
Tremor remains continuous but still has occasional small, ragged tremor bursts. There was only one small, shallow earthquake beneath the summit of Kīlauea summit in the past 24 hours.
Since episode 51 ended, inflation resumed and has recovered 8 microradians of tilt at the summit tiltmeter at Uēkahuna (UWD). Kīlauea summit deflation totaled 14.7 microradians during episode 51.
The sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate from the summit is likely now varying within a typical range of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day. Degassing plumes from both vents are being blown toward the southwest this morning.
Rift Zone Observations:
Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone. SO2 emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below the detection limit.
Analysis:
The abrupt switch from summit deflation to inflation at the end of episode 51 along with continued glow from the vents indicates that another fountaining episode is likely. Inflation since the end of episode 51 has been relatively smooth without significant deflations at this time. Inflation-based models have a forecast window for the start of episode 52 fountains from July 24 through July 28 with July 25-27 most likely.
Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Lava fountaining episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be longer than three weeks.
HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.
