(BIVN) – Hurricane Fausto was 1,950 miles east of Hilo on Thursday morning, and was moving westward at near 13 mph.
Fausto has maintained its strength with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. The National Hurricane Center says some small intensity fluctuations are possible today, and a slow weakening trend is forecast over the weekend.
“While the longer-range forecast brings the center of Fausto generally toward the Hawaiian Islands, it is too early to speculate on potential impacts to the islands at this point,” the National Hurricane Center wrote.
“Next week, the weather across the state will depend on the eventual track and intensity of Tropical Cyclone Fausto,” the National Weather Service in Honolulu said in a Thursday morning discussion. “The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a gradual weakening of this system as it tracks westward and enters the Central Pacific this weekend, with further weakening expected early next week as it moves into a more hostile environment with cooler waters and increased shear.”
“At this time, its too early to predict any direct impacts from Fausto on Hawaii, though confidence is increasing in east-facing shores receiving a decent swell late this weekend into early next week,” the NWS wrote.
From the National Hurricane Center discussion posted at 5 a.m. HST:
Dry air entrainment has once again impacted Fausto this morning. While the hurricane briefly closed off an eyewall a few hours ago, the latest satellite images show that inner core convection has eroded on the western side of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 70 kt, which falls between the latest D-MINT and D-PRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS and a T4.5/77 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB.
The hurricane is moving westward (280 degrees) at 11 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days as a ridge strengthens to the north of Fausto. There is increased spread in the track models beginning around day 3, with the Google Deep Mind notably faster and farther south than the GFS and the hurricane regional models. The NHC track forecast remains on the southern side of the guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean. While the longer-range forecast brings the center of Fausto generally toward the Hawaiian Islands, it is too early to speculate on potential impacts to the islands at this point.
Fausto continues to periodically struggle with intrusions of drier mid-level air within its circulation. Although the deep-layer shear is fairly low, model soundings suggest that stronger west-northwesterly mid-level shear during the next couple of days may cause continued bouts of dry air entrainment. Then, the SHIPS guidance shows mid-level humidity values falling below 50 percent by this weekend. So although Fausto will be over marginal SSTs throughout the period, a gradual weakening trend is predicted while the system moves into the Central Pacific. This forecast keeps Fausto a tropical cyclone through day 5, but model simulated satellite imagery suggests the system could struggle to maintain organized convection by early next week.
