(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano remains paused, and the resumption of inflation has resulted in an adjustment to the forecasted window for the next episode of high lava fountains.
The modeled forecast time window for episode 52 is now between July 25 and July 29, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported on Thursday.
Summit inflation has resumed after a day-long pause. As of Thursday morning, the summit tiltmeter at Uēkahuna has recovered 11.1 microradians of tilt, following the 14.7 microradians of deflation that occurred during episode 51.
From the USGS HVO on Thursday:
Summit Observations:
Degassing continues from both north and south vents. Strong glow and occasional flaming was visible overnight from the south vent, while north vent had weaker yet fairly persistent glow.
Tremor remains continuous and still has occasional small, ragged tremor bursts. No earthquakes were located beneath the summit of Kīlauea summit in the past 24 hours.
Since episode 51 ended, inflation resumed and has recovered 11.1 microradians of tilt at the summit tiltmeter at Uēkahuna (UWD). Summit inflation resumed in the past 24 hours after a day-long pause. Kīlauea summit deflation totaled 14.7 microradians during episode 51.
The sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate from the summit is likely now varying within a typical range of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day. Degassing plumes from both vents are being blown toward the southwest this morning.
Rift Zone Observations:
Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone. SO2 emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below the detection limit.
Analysis:
The abrupt switch from summit deflation to inflation at the end of episode 51 along with continued glow from the vents indicates that another fountaining episode is likely. Inflation since the end of episode 51 was relatively smooth without significant deflations until very early on Tuesday, July 21, when inflation paused and was flat for over a day. Inflation resumed yesterday morning (Wednesday July 22), and has since gained 2 microradians. As of this morning, inflation-based models have moved the forecast window for the start of episode 52 fountains a day earlier to July 25 through July 29. Future periods of slow inflation or deflation may cause the forecast window to be adjusted.
Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Lava fountaining episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be longer than three weeks.
