(BIVN) – The slow build to Kīlauea’s eruptive Episode 36 continues at Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, with frequent lava overflows occurring at the north vent in the summit caldera. 

Although summit inflation was relatively minor in the last 24 hours, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory said the repeated overflows indicate the start of episode 36 is close. High lava fountains could begin as early as tomorrow, models suggest. 

The Uēkahuna tiltmeter (UWD) has recorded approximately 0.9 microradian of inflationary tilt over the past 24 hours, the Observatory reported on Monday morning. The scientists have recorded 24.2 microradians of inflationary tilt since the end of Episode 35. 

“Tremor patterns consisted of continuous tremor with occasional bursts of stronger tremor signal overnight,” the USGS HVO stated. “Tremor is not showing the strong correlation with lava overflows and drainbacks characteristic of normal gas pistoning.”

USGS webcam

From the USGS HVO on Monday morning:

The immediate onset and continuation of inflationary tilt following the end of episode 35 coupled with persistent vent glow, spattering, and lava overflows indicate that the start of episode 36 fountains is close. The summit inflation rate rose to a rate of about 0.9 microradians per day compared to 0.5 microradians per day yesterday. Models indicate episode 36 is currently likely to occur sometime between November 4 and November 8 with November 5-7 the most probable window. Repeated overflows from the north vent suggest that episode 36 will start in the next 1-3 days based upon activity preceding past episodes.

The current eruption has been characterized by episodic lava fountaining not seen in any eruptions since the 1983–86 episodic fountains at the beginning of the Puʻuʻōʻō eruption. Lava fountains and flows have erupted from two vents within Halemaʻumaʻu crater that we refer to as the north vent and south vent. Each of the previous fountaining episodes lasted from a few hours to over a week and was accompanied by strong deflation of the summit region. Pauses between the lava fountaining episodes have been marked by an immediate switch from deflation to inflation as the magma chamber recharges and repressurizes. Lava fountaining episodes have occurred approximately once per week since the start of the current eruption on December 23, 2024.

HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.