(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano remains paused, with the next episode of high lava fountaining expected to occur as early as next week. 

The nearly 10-hour episode 42 occurred on February 15th. The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported on Wednesday that preliminary models suggest the likely forecast window for the onset of episode 43 is between March 6th and March 16th. 

The scientists noted that summit inflation resumed on Tuesday, and continued into Wednesday. 

USGS webcam view of the inactive vents within Halemaʻumaʻu crater at the summit of Kīlauea on Wednesday

The USGS Volcano Alert Level for Kīlauea remains at WATCH.

From the USGS HVO update on Wednesday morning:

Summit Observations:

Intermittent glow from both vents was visible through the night, although glow was stronger and more frequent from the south vent. At the time of this report, both vents are quiet and emitting robust degassing plumes. Low seismic tremor continues through the pause, punctuated by more energetic bursts every 5-10 minutes. These bursts have been associated with brief increases in gas emission and increases in glow from the vents at night. There were two earthquakes less than M1.0 located at the summit region during the past day.

Inflation resumed yesterday and continues this morning. The UWD tiltmeter has recorded a total recovery of nearly 17.2 microradians of inflationary tilt since the end of episode 42, with about 2.2 microradians of inflation over the past 24 hours.

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rates from the summit have averaged around 1000-1500 tonnes per day, which is typical for these eruptive pauses. This morning, trade winds are blowing the plume to the southwest from the summit vents; this is expected to continue through tomorrow.

Rift Zone Observations:

Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain very low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone. SO2 emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below the detection limit.

Analysis:

The initial rapid rebound of tilt and glow from both vents indicate that another fountaining episode is likely. The inflationary trend over the past several days has been interrupted by significant periods of no inflation or slight deflation recorded across all four summit tiltmeters that may impact the onset of episode 43 fountaining. Periods of weak deflation or no inflation have not been common in the early stages of repose between fountaining episodes. These changes in tilt rate are not predictable and create uncertainty in modeling the onset of episode 43 fountaining. Preliminary models suggest the forecast window for the start of episode 43 fountaining is likely between March 6 and March 16. Additional data are needed to more accurately determine the forecast window.

Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, primarily from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Eruptive episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be as long as over two weeks.

HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.