(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano is paused, with the next episode of high lava fountaining expected to occur as soon as later this week.
The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported on Monday that forecast models suggest that episode 48 will occur sometime between Friday, May 22 and Monday, May 25.
The most recent episode (47) occurred on May 14th. The summit has been reinflating since the episode ended after midnight on May 15th.
From the USGS HVO summit observations posted Monday morning:
Summit Observations:
Glow was visible at both Halemaʻumaʻu eruptive vents overnight, though it was more consistent at the south vent. Glow at the north vent was noticeably brighter than the night before, probably a result of slowly rising lava within the vent conduit. Episode 47 lava flows on the crater floor retain spots of incandescence as they cool and solidify.
Low-level seismic tremor continues during the current pause, with bursts every 5–10 minutes likely associated with gas pistoning cycles in the eruptive vents. Earthquake activity beneath Kīlauea summit is low at this time.
Since the end of lava fountaining episode 47 on May 15, the Uēkahuna tiltmeter (UWD) has tracked approximately 8.4 microradians of inflationary tilt. This instrument recorded 15.6 microradians of deflationary tilt during episode 47.
With the eruption now paused, the sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate from the summit is likely now varying within a typical range of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day. Surface winds are steady out of the northeast at the summit this morning.
Rift Zone Observations:
Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone. SO2 emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below the detection limit.
Analysis:
The rapid return of inflationary tilt and glow at both Halemaʻumaʻu eruptive vents indicates that another lava fountaining episode is likely. Lava spattering and overflows from one or both of the eruptive vents are expected to precede the next lava fountaining episode. Forecast models based on summit inflation indicate that episode 48 is likely to occur sometime between Friday, May 22 and Monday, May 25. The forecast window may change as more data are incorporated into the models, and possible periods of deflation may delay the onset of episode 48.
Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Lava fountaining episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be longer than three weeks.
HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.
