(BIVN) – High lava fountains could return to the summit of Kīlauea by this weekend.
Scientists with the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory are forecasting that episode 48 will occur sometime between Saturday, May 23 and Monday, May 25.
For now, the ongoing eruption remains paused, and the Volcano Alert Level is at ADVISORY.
The summit has been reinflated since episode 47 ended on May 15th. During the 9 hour lava eruption, the Uēkahuna tiltmeter recorded 15.6 microradians of deflationary tilt. The same instrument has since tracked approximately 10.8 microradians of inflation.
These episodes have been going on since the summit eruption began on December 23, 2024. The periodic lava fountains generally last for less than 12 hours, and are separated by pauses that can be longer than three weeks. The time elapsed between episodes has been getting shorter in recent months.
On Tuesday, scientists at the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory surveyed the summit area, where they measured the tephra cone formed by the numerous lava fountaining episodes. The Observatory has been tracking the growth of track the growth of hill over time.
In a recent Volcano Watch article, the Observatory said the reason for the quick-repeats is that the volume of lava has been much lower during the past three episodes, which means it does not take long for the magma storage system to recover. The same article noted that while there have been some brief earthquake swarms at the summit in the last couple of months, there are currently no clear signs of changes in this episodic eruption.
