(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea remains paused, with another episode of high lava fountaining expected as early as this weekend.
On Thursday morning, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported forecast models indicated that episode 49 is likely to occur between June 13 and June 15.
“Low level tremor related to the active vents continues to be recorded across summit seismometers,” the Observatory stated. “There were two small earthquakes less than M1.0 in the summit region in the past 24 hours.”
“Summit inflation recorded on the UWD tiltmeter slowed overnight, showing only 0.4 microradians of tilt increase and a total increase of 13.8 microradians since the end of episode 48,” the Observatory said. “The UWD tiltmeter recorded a total of 17.1 microradians of deflationary tilt during episode 48.”
Scientists conducted a Kīlauea summit monitoring overflight on June 9, in order to document changes to the eruptive vents and crater floor after episode 48 occurred on June 1st. Photos from the overflight were posted to the Observatory website.
From an analysis provided in a USGS HVO Thursday update:
Continued repose period inflation, tremor, and glow from the vents all indicate that episode 49 is likely. The slowing of inflation across the summit of Kīlauea yesterday has pushed the forecast back slightly. Forecast models based on Kīlauea summit region inflation rates suggest that the start of fountaining episode 49 is most likely June 13-15. If slow inflation continues at the summit, it could push the forecast further back.
Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Lava fountaining episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be longer than three weeks.
