(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea remains paused. Inflation resumed Monday afternoon and continues, although tilt flattened and slowed Tuesday morning.
The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory says lava fountaining episode 51 is likely to start between today, July 14 and Thursday, July 16.
“Overnight webcam views showed strong glow from the north vent with occasional spatter, and variable glow from the south vent,” scientists wrote in a Tuesday morning update.
From the USGS HVO on Tuesday, July 14:
Summit Observations:
Continuous strong glow was visible from the north vent overnight with occasional flames and weak spattering, and intermittent variable glow from the south vent.
Steady, low-level seismic tremor was alternating with short periods of reduced tremor followed by spikes related to gas piston activity in the south vent. Earthquake activity beneath Kaluapele (Kīlauea caldera) remains low.
Kīlauea summit has recorded about 1.7 microradians of inflationary tilt since about 2:00 p.m. HST yesterday afternoon on the UWD tiltmeter, following the long deflationary trend that began on Saturday morning, July 11. For the first 14 hours, the inflation rate was rapid, regaining 1.7 microradians by around 2:30 a.m. HST, followed by very slow inflation that is continuing. Since inflation resumed yesterday afternoon, the UWD tiltmeter is up to a total of 15 microradians since the end of episode 50. Summit deflation totaled 15.3 microradians on UWD during episode 50.
The sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate from the summit is likely now varying within a typical range of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day.
Rift Zone Observations:
Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone. SO2 emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below the detection limit.
Analysis:
Summit inflation resumed yesterday afternoon, following several days of deflationary tilt. At first, the inflation was very rapid regaining 1.7 microradians in 14 hours, making it look like episode 51 fountaining was near. However, around 2:30 a.m. HST, the inflation rate nearly flattened and very slow inflation continues. If this rate is sustained it will push back the start of episode 51 to later today at the earliest. Deflationary trends have interrupted the overall inflationary pattern several times following episode 50 and complicate forecasting the onset of episode 51 fountains. Strong continuous glow and occasional spatter from the north vent along with intermittent but strong glow from the south vent overnight, indicates that magma remains close to the surface. The current forecast suggests that episode 51 will occur sometime between later today, July 14, and Thursday, July 16, but this time window could be pushed back further if summit inflation rates remain low.
Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u. Lava fountaining episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be longer than three weeks.
HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.
