(BIVN) – Areas of “Extreme Drought” are appearing on Hawaiʻi island, and the forecast for the upcoming dry season predicts worsening conditions. 

The National Weather Service outlook for the Hawaiʻi dry season, which runs from May through September, was released on Thursday. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s forecast probabilities and model consensus favor below normal precipitation for Hawaiʻi Island. 

The entire Big Island is already under D1 Moderate Drought conditions, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map. Swaths of D2 Severe Drought exist, with patches of D3 Extreme Drought on the northern slops of Maunakea and the windward coast of Kaʻū – including the towns of Pāhala and Naʻalehu. 

The Drought Monitor noted the drought expanded on Hawaiʻi island “due to missed precipitation, low streamflows, and declining vegetative health.”

Over the 2024-2025 wet season, most windward areas on Hawaiʻi island saw rainfall totals of 40 to 70% of the seasonal average. The 58.63 inches recorded at the Hilo Airport was the third driest total in the last three decades. 

“The wet season was influenced by a weak La Niña event from January through March that transitioned to ENSO-neutral conditions in April,” NOAA reported. “Probabilities (74%) favor ENSO-neutral conditions to persist through the summer and a 50% chance of continuing through October.”

graphic from NOAA slide presentation

The NOAA report noted rainfall “is inherently difficult to forecast during ENSO-neutral conditions due to a lack of a significant driver (El Niño or La Niña) directing the path of weather systems and more predictable impacts.” 

With the Big Island entering the dry season with existing D1 Moderate Drought conditions (or worse), forecasters warn there is “a higher risk for drought continuing or worsening and a higher chance for significant wildfires.” 

“Impacts are expected to be the worst for non-irrigated agriculture, water systems dependent on surface water diversions, and residents relying on rainfall catchment,” the NOAA report stated.