(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea remains paused, although the next episode is likely to start in the next few days.

The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported on Wedneseday that current inflation data indicate that Episode 29 is likely to start between Thursday, July 17th, and Saturday, July 19th.

Low-level degassing and seismic tremor persist in the summit area, and the USGS Volcano Alert Level for Kīlauea remains at WATCH.

From the USGS HVO on Wednesday:

Incandescence in the crater last night was limited. There was only minor incandescence on the cone and glow from the north vent was sporadic. Slow slumping of the eruptive cone continues this morning and may continue over the next hours to days.

At present, tremor and degassing persist at lower but still elevated levels. Typical sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rates associated with pause periods are 1,200 to 1,500 t/d. Unlike many other pauses, gas pistoning appears absent thus far during this pause.

Fountaining associated with episode 28 resulted in 15 microradians of deflation. At the time of this update, UWD had re-inflated by about 12.9 microradians.

USGS webcam shows the Kīlauea summit vent on Wednesday morning

Rift Zone Observations:

Rates of seismicity and ground deformation remain very low in the East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone, with no significant earthquake activity in the past 24 hours. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from the East Rift Zone remain below the detection limit.

Analysis: 

Summit inflation resumed at the end of episode 28, and low-level degassing and seismic tremor persist, all of which suggest that another episode of fountaining is likely. The rate of inflation indicates that episode 29 may take place this coming Thursday through Saturday, with Friday being most likely. If inflation rates change significantly, the projected window will be adjusted to fit the new conditions.

The current eruption has been characterized by episodic lava fountaining not seen in any eruptions since the 1983–86 episodic fountains at the beginning of the Puʻuʻōʻō eruption. Lava fountains and flows have erupted from two vents within Halema’um’a’u crater that we refer to as the north vent and south vent. Each of the previous fountaining episodes lasted from a few hours to over a week and was accompanied by strong deflation of the summit region. Pauses between the fountaining episodes have been marked by an immediate switch from deflation to inflation as the magma chamber recharges and repressurizes. Fountaining episodes have occurred approximately once per week since the start of the current eruption on December 23, 2024.

HVO continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency about eruptive hazards.