(BIVN) – The ongoing eruption at the summit of Kīlauea is paused, as the Hawaiʻi island volcano builds to its next episode of high lava fountaining.

The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported on Tuesday that preliminary models suggest the likely forecast window for the onset of episode 43 lava fountaining is March 2nd to 14th. “Additional data are needed to narrow down the forecast window,” the Observatory added.

Episode 42 occurred on February 15th, and lasted nearly 10 hours. All lava activity remains confined to the summit caldera within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park.

From the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory on Tuesday:

Moderate to bright glow from both vents was visible through the night. At the time of this report, both vents are quiet and emitting robust degassing plumes. Seismic tremor continues during the current pause, with intermittent bursts of slightly stronger tremor that occasionally correlate with brighter glow from one or both of the vents. There were no earthquakes located across the summit region during the past day.

Incandescence of flows on the floor of Halemaʻumaʻu crater was greatly reduced last night compared to the previous night. Flows could be detected moving only in a few places in the north and central parts of the crater. Lava emplaced around and above the south vent also continued to move downslope into the crater but at a much lower rate. Incandescence on the crater floor may remain for several days. Flows around the vent may also continue to be incandescent and move downslope during this time.

The UWD tiltmeter has recorded a total recovery of nearly 7.6 microradians of inflationary tilt since the end of episode 42, with 4.2 microradians of that in the past 24 hours.

Plume geometry and weather prevented measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rate during episode 42’s fountaining, but the emissions were likely in the range of 100,000 t/d, similar to during previous episodes. During pauses, like the current conditions, the SO2 emission rate from the summit has varied within a typical range of 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes of SO2 per day. This morning, webcams show that the plume from the summit vents is being carried to the southwest. The National Weather Service forecast for the Kīlauea summit region for today indicates winds from the north-northeast at 18 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.